Tag Archives: Baby Boomers

Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?

access_time

Have you ever heard the term “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it’s all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let’s dive into what it is and why it won’t drastically impact the housing market.

What Does Silver Tsunami Mean?

A recent article from HousingWire calls it:

“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”

The thought is that as baby boomers grow older, a significant number will start downsizing their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.

The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?

Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024

Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won’t anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:

“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”

Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. Data from the AARP shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (see chart below):

Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming sums it up best:

“Demographic trends, they don’t tsunami. They trickle.”

Baby Boomers Setting New Trend on National Real Estate Market: All Cash Deals

access_time

Baby Boomer home buyers As more Baby Boomers retire, real estate experts all across the United States are seeing more cash deals, according to a recent report from Bloomberg.

Evidently, these Baby Boomers (defined as anyone born between 1946 and 1964) are opting to purchase their homes with all cash instead of taking out a mortgage.

Experts credit this in part to the fact that US home price gains have restored $3.8 trillion in value to home owners since 2012.

This means that a record number of Americans (including Baby Boomers) are using that equity to help them pay cash for properties, avoiding a home loan altogether.

Another factor is that these Baby Boomers have more money in savings, allowing them the option to pay with cash.

This is an important trend that is sure to have an effect on all home buyers, not just those who fall in the Baby Boomer cohort.

More Revealed on This Recent National Real Estate Trend

Here’s what else the recent Bloomberg article noted about Baby Boomers affecting real estate trends:

  • In the first quarter, 29 percent of non-investment home buyers used cash.
  • Most of the people making all-cash deals are Baby Boomers, mostly because this generation is starting to retire.
  • For instance, in 2012, there were 61.8 million Americans over the age of 60, according to the Census. In 2000, that figure was 46.6 million.
  • Home mortgage lending dropped to $115 billion during the first quarter, which is the lowest it’s been in three years
  • Meanwhile, in the first three months of 2014, buyers paid $105.1 billion of their own money for properties, compared with $84.7 billion the year before.
  • And the percentage of purchases made by investors (who are typically associated with all-cash deals) fell to the lowest first-quarter level since 2010.
  • About 16.3 million Americans over the age of 60 owned their homes outright in 2012, according to Census data. In 2009, that number was 12.1 million.
  • About 39 percent of Baby Boomers want to retire to a rural community, such as a farm or a small town, according to a Better Homes poll.
  • About 27 percent want to move to an active adult community that offers activities like rock climbing and yoga.
  • And 26 percent said they want to retire to a city.

Baby Boomers have historically been considered a very influential generation, in part because of their sheer size. And their latest activity on the national real estate market is likely to have a major impact on the state of the housing market for many years to come.

After all, about 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day, according to the Pew Research Center in Washington. And it’s estimated that between 2010 and 2020, Americans age 65 to 74 will jump 51 percent.

Experts are also saying that the Baby Boomer generation is expected to stay in the housing market longer than the previous generation.

Some even predict that Baby Boomers will be purchasing and selling properties well into their 80s because they have led active and healthier lives for a longer period than their parents.

Keeping An Eye on Key Real Estate Trends for You

It will be interesting to see how the Baby Boomer generation continues to shape real estate trends on a national scale.

We’ll keep you posted on this trend as well as any other trends that may affect you as a home buyer or seller.